* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 08/14/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 31 34 34 32 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 31 34 34 32 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 10 9 12 12 14 15 20 20 15 16 15 13 12 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 0 1 1 1 -3 -2 1 0 4 4 5 5 5 SHEAR DIR 293 293 279 284 272 226 233 245 256 257 244 227 221 206 233 229 254 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.3 26.0 25.6 22.9 22.4 22.3 22.2 22.4 22.6 22.9 23.2 23.9 24.8 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 143 139 126 122 94 87 85 83 85 87 90 93 100 110 112 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 73 69 67 65 64 59 56 49 48 45 44 40 39 33 32 28 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 12 14 13 11 11 9 8 7 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 29 42 44 26 23 14 16 16 21 20 22 28 36 52 46 64 200 MB DIV 22 36 57 60 58 47 32 0 1 3 2 -9 -2 -5 8 -2 -16 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -7 -13 -2 -5 -5 2 5 5 0 3 1 5 0 5 0 LAND (KM) 479 418 377 394 430 578 758 1030 1273 1408 1550 1699 1868 2004 1883 1767 1656 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.2 19.9 20.6 21.4 22.9 24.0 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.3 23.8 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.7 111.7 112.9 114.3 117.6 121.3 124.7 127.3 129.4 131.1 132.7 134.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 14 16 18 17 14 10 8 8 8 8 8 7 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 18. 15. 12. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 2. 0. -0. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 7. 3. -3. -8. -13. -19. -23. -25. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.5 109.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 08/14/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.41 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.19 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.1% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.5% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 08/14/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##