* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 08/14/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 38 38 37 31 28 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 38 38 37 31 28 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 13 17 16 14 15 9 8 4 5 5 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -2 0 -1 0 2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 2 2 4 3 SHEAR DIR 316 304 285 270 271 252 226 236 232 246 250 245 209 224 214 246 260 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.2 24.8 23.9 23.1 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.7 23.3 23.4 23.8 24.2 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 151 145 137 113 104 95 87 86 86 88 94 95 98 102 110 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 74 74 70 67 65 61 55 51 48 47 46 41 39 36 36 36 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 15 15 15 16 15 14 14 11 10 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 27 27 39 38 10 24 9 18 15 31 22 50 51 59 51 69 200 MB DIV 50 36 37 50 62 55 23 9 -13 -3 -5 0 -15 24 3 12 -2 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -5 -6 -11 2 -7 0 6 2 0 3 0 4 0 4 3 LAND (KM) 456 498 452 411 409 481 657 864 1080 1285 1458 1610 1751 1888 2007 2123 2106 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.4 21.9 23.1 23.8 24.1 23.9 23.6 23.0 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.9 110.8 111.8 112.9 115.8 119.0 122.4 125.0 127.1 128.8 130.2 131.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 14 16 16 14 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 11 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 19. 17. 14. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 13. 12. 6. 3. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.7 109.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 08/14/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.41 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.9% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 3.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.2% 6.1% 0.2% 0.1% 5.1% 4.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 08/14/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##