* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 08/13/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 36 45 53 58 58 54 49 45 41 38 36 33 32 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 36 45 53 58 58 54 49 45 41 38 36 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 35 33 30 26 23 22 20 19 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 10 9 6 7 10 10 12 11 10 5 3 3 6 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 1 0 -2 0 2 1 -1 -2 0 -2 -1 0 1 4 SHEAR DIR 299 290 300 301 280 215 239 185 205 171 185 169 155 248 251 243 203 SST (C) 30.3 30.0 29.5 29.2 29.1 28.2 26.2 25.3 24.8 24.0 24.5 24.7 24.1 23.3 23.4 23.6 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 165 160 157 156 147 126 117 111 101 106 108 102 93 94 96 96 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.4 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 6 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 78 76 77 75 74 69 66 63 62 58 56 51 50 46 45 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 12 13 16 18 18 18 16 14 13 11 9 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 3 27 44 43 37 51 34 34 60 72 83 84 68 54 58 46 46 200 MB DIV 32 27 37 69 50 79 53 64 40 21 26 10 2 -25 -3 -28 -19 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -8 -3 1 0 -3 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 376 414 466 527 533 507 587 696 880 1004 1130 1224 1324 1423 1533 1618 1687 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.2 19.3 20.3 21.0 21.3 21.3 21.0 21.1 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.9 108.9 109.9 111.0 113.0 115.3 117.7 120.1 121.9 123.3 124.6 125.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 10 7 7 6 6 6 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 26 22 17 15 14 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 27. 26. 24. 22. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 11. 9. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 20. 28. 33. 33. 29. 24. 20. 16. 13. 11. 8. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.5 106.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 08/13/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.57 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.39 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.17 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.7% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.3% 17.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 6.2% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 5.8% 9.7% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 8.6% 7.0% 0.3% 0.1% 8.0% 9.0% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 08/13/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##