* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 08/13/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 49 55 62 61 56 51 45 40 35 32 28 24 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 49 55 62 61 56 51 45 40 35 32 28 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 34 38 41 43 41 37 32 28 24 22 19 17 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 8 7 8 10 10 13 10 11 10 5 9 12 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -1 1 0 -2 3 0 1 0 -1 0 0 2 1 3 SHEAR DIR 329 287 295 294 271 267 240 232 186 209 169 201 196 219 221 234 232 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.0 29.5 29.3 28.7 27.0 26.1 24.9 24.5 24.0 24.0 23.2 22.8 22.8 22.8 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 165 160 158 152 134 125 112 107 101 102 93 89 89 88 89 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 79 77 75 77 75 70 68 65 62 61 55 50 49 47 44 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 11 12 13 17 17 20 18 17 15 13 12 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -7 2 31 41 52 49 42 33 46 57 73 67 62 38 38 25 33 200 MB DIV 70 28 26 45 77 83 66 58 52 31 20 18 -4 -4 -10 -12 -28 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 -5 -7 1 -2 -1 -5 1 0 0 -1 4 -1 4 0 LAND (KM) 368 388 430 490 551 530 585 657 788 914 994 1096 1221 1370 1489 1611 1672 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.6 19.6 20.5 21.0 21.4 21.7 22.0 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.0 107.1 108.1 109.1 110.1 112.2 114.4 116.7 118.8 120.7 122.2 123.8 125.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 9 9 7 8 8 7 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 21 17 15 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -0. 5. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 28. 27. 25. 23. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 15. 15. 13. 10. 7. 5. 2. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 24. 30. 37. 36. 31. 26. 20. 15. 10. 7. 3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.1 106.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 08/13/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.55 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.42 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.3% 22.8% 0.0% 0.0% 21.4% 21.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 15.6% 6.8% 3.4% 1.5% 19.8% 13.4% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 13.9% 9.9% 1.2% 0.5% 13.7% 11.6% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 08/13/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##