* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 08/13/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 42 53 63 70 71 67 63 55 50 44 41 40 38 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 42 53 63 70 71 67 63 55 50 44 41 40 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 42 49 53 54 51 45 39 33 29 26 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 11 7 5 6 7 6 12 11 12 10 9 6 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -4 -3 0 -2 0 4 3 3 4 1 -1 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 14 336 282 292 302 272 247 232 205 186 179 175 148 155 171 255 276 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.0 29.6 29.2 28.4 26.7 26.1 24.9 24.6 24.1 24.1 23.3 23.3 23.8 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 169 165 161 157 148 131 124 112 109 103 103 95 95 99 97 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 80 80 78 76 77 74 71 70 65 64 58 55 50 49 45 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 11 13 16 19 21 20 19 19 16 15 14 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 9 5 11 36 54 45 55 45 50 74 87 81 67 56 58 69 87 200 MB DIV 83 84 46 41 74 64 79 55 87 51 33 22 -5 -15 -11 -9 -15 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 -1 -3 -4 0 -3 -5 1 -2 2 0 2 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 334 368 388 430 496 554 531 596 642 771 907 1031 1167 1344 1509 1674 1812 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.2 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.6 21.0 21.4 21.6 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.9 106.0 107.1 108.1 109.1 111.0 112.8 114.7 116.6 118.6 120.6 122.6 124.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 26 21 17 15 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 28. 27. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 17. 18. 16. 15. 12. 9. 7. 4. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 17. 28. 38. 45. 46. 42. 38. 30. 25. 19. 16. 15. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 104.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 08/13/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 9.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.51 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 30.2% 26.6% 0.0% 0.0% 24.4% 26.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 19.9% 9.6% 5.3% 2.5% 35.8% 43.7% 9.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 17.1% 12.2% 1.8% 0.9% 20.1% 23.4% 3.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 08/13/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##