* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 06/24/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 31 35 34 31 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 31 35 34 31 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 6 6 5 7 8 13 18 20 22 19 18 13 14 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 0 -8 1 9 4 5 2 1 1 1 1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 51 358 349 10 32 139 167 187 190 204 214 224 243 249 221 220 229 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.8 24.9 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.8 24.5 24.7 25.0 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 139 138 139 136 134 131 111 107 108 109 110 107 110 113 116 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 4 700-500 MB RH 67 65 63 63 65 64 63 61 55 49 41 36 33 30 28 25 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 13 15 13 11 8 6 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 50 43 37 40 42 20 -14 -29 -30 -24 -9 5 16 17 24 23 200 MB DIV 45 39 17 9 19 7 6 -5 -2 -5 -7 -9 -19 -3 1 17 10 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -6 -6 -3 0 1 0 4 5 6 8 11 13 6 6 2 LAND (KM) 2650 2609 2535 2471 2412 2294 2168 2048 1909 1762 1593 1428 1262 1085 898 696 498 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.4 11.2 12.4 13.8 15.1 16.2 17.1 17.5 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.9 132.6 133.3 133.9 134.4 135.2 135.9 136.5 137.4 138.5 139.9 141.4 143.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 5 6 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 9 11 14 12 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 25. 26. 25. 23. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 10. 9. 6. -1. -8. -13. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 131.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 06/24/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.78 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.30 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.63 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.7% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 20.2% 11.1% 3.8% 1.2% 3.3% 1.1% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 13.7% 9.7% 1.3% 0.4% 1.1% 5.5% 1.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 06/24/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##