* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 06/24/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 36 43 46 46 40 34 28 24 21 20 19 18 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 36 43 46 46 40 34 28 24 21 20 19 18 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 30 31 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 8 8 8 10 9 5 5 10 13 13 12 12 8 11 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 0 -1 -1 -9 -2 6 7 6 5 1 1 0 -3 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 88 66 36 24 34 81 131 159 179 199 184 175 182 196 182 203 193 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.0 23.9 24.0 24.4 24.4 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 138 138 138 136 133 123 100 101 105 105 110 109 108 111 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 65 67 66 64 64 65 64 64 58 52 43 34 27 25 22 22 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 15 14 13 13 16 15 14 11 8 5 3 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 77 66 49 41 35 45 32 6 -18 -21 -17 -5 9 14 14 23 11 200 MB DIV 58 50 35 1 -7 -1 13 4 0 -2 -5 -14 -12 -11 -2 6 13 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -6 -5 -2 1 0 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 4 4 LAND (KM) 2601 2649 2633 2569 2510 2407 2295 2194 2076 1943 1802 1654 1506 1354 1174 999 795 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.7 11.8 13.2 14.7 16.0 17.1 17.7 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.3 131.8 132.4 133.0 133.5 134.3 134.9 135.3 135.9 136.8 137.9 139.2 140.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 8 9 12 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 25. 26. 24. 23. 22. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 4. 3. 3. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 11. 18. 21. 21. 15. 9. 3. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 131.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 06/24/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.54 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.31 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.1% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 4.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 1.5% 11.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.9% 5.6% 0.1% 0.1% 4.5% 5.4% 3.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 10.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 8.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 06/24/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##