* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 06/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 35 42 46 47 41 35 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 35 42 46 47 41 35 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 27 30 32 32 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 10 10 11 12 8 8 12 15 18 17 17 16 13 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -1 -2 -3 -8 -6 4 11 8 6 0 0 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 98 93 78 49 38 66 95 132 158 164 155 159 159 172 162 172 198 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.6 25.0 23.6 24.1 24.5 24.7 25.4 25.0 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 138 138 138 137 136 134 129 112 97 102 106 109 116 112 113 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 67 64 64 61 62 58 53 46 37 30 26 26 24 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 14 16 16 16 13 10 8 5 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 91 74 55 45 45 47 23 0 -8 -7 -5 13 25 34 35 39 200 MB DIV 75 84 62 36 8 0 4 10 5 9 -3 -9 -18 -15 -5 0 10 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -3 -5 -3 -1 0 1 2 5 3 4 4 3 2 3 LAND (KM) 2520 2560 2608 2658 2628 2515 2403 2295 2176 2058 1917 1777 1637 1498 1353 1202 1024 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.5 11.4 12.7 14.2 15.6 16.6 17.3 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.5 130.9 131.3 131.9 132.4 133.3 134.0 134.5 135.1 135.8 136.9 138.1 139.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 25. 24. 23. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 4. 5. 5. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 17. 21. 22. 16. 10. 2. -3. -9. -11. -13. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 130.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 06/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.36 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.44 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.3% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.2% 5.5% 0.1% 0.2% 4.5% 4.9% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 9.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 06/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##