* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 06/23/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 37 43 49 51 47 40 32 26 19 17 17 16 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 37 43 49 51 47 40 32 26 19 17 17 16 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 33 35 33 27 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 14 10 9 9 8 2 7 11 15 17 15 16 12 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -2 -2 -5 -6 -1 8 13 8 5 0 0 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 109 102 88 69 41 46 54 112 186 177 173 162 169 174 179 183 208 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.2 27.1 25.8 24.6 24.6 24.8 25.3 25.4 24.9 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 138 139 139 138 138 135 134 120 107 107 110 115 117 112 116 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 71 68 68 68 66 63 62 61 59 54 50 41 34 27 26 23 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 14 15 15 17 17 15 12 9 6 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 86 95 94 75 55 49 50 39 20 -2 -12 -6 7 25 43 33 30 200 MB DIV 85 87 78 51 23 -2 5 27 30 11 5 2 -17 -16 -12 -1 0 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -1 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 6 4 LAND (KM) 2466 2506 2570 2627 2609 2481 2358 2225 2101 1964 1845 1705 1570 1428 1277 1098 923 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.4 10.9 11.8 13.0 14.4 15.5 16.4 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.2 130.6 131.2 131.8 132.5 133.7 134.7 135.6 136.3 137.1 137.9 139.0 140.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 6 6 6 6 5 7 7 8 7 6 7 7 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 7 8 10 13 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 27. 26. 26. 25. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 5. 8. 9. 6. 1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 18. 24. 26. 22. 15. 7. 1. -6. -8. -8. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 130.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 06/23/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.39 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.51 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.6% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.8% 6.0% 0.1% 0.2% 4.7% 4.9% 1.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 10.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 11.0% 27.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 06/23/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##