* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 06/23/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 40 45 52 57 54 49 43 38 32 29 27 25 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 40 45 52 57 54 49 43 38 32 29 27 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 36 39 39 34 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 14 13 13 11 8 4 10 15 13 12 14 13 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -4 -4 -3 -3 -5 -5 3 13 6 9 4 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 112 90 82 68 55 32 50 83 168 185 187 179 151 151 161 148 156 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.7 25.8 25.2 24.9 25.0 25.5 25.4 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 142 141 141 140 136 133 129 120 113 109 111 116 116 112 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 73 72 68 68 67 64 64 61 61 56 51 46 38 32 29 27 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 15 13 10 7 5 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 77 85 87 73 70 47 49 50 28 5 -19 -19 -12 0 22 38 29 200 MB DIV 100 88 68 58 39 -2 -11 11 24 21 4 -5 -12 -23 -39 -21 -16 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 -1 0 -5 -4 -2 -1 0 0 4 3 4 2 4 3 LAND (KM) 2481 2529 2602 2666 2619 2496 2378 2245 2117 1993 1883 1776 1682 1586 1484 1363 1237 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.9 10.3 11.0 12.0 13.2 14.4 15.4 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.3 130.7 131.4 132.0 132.6 133.8 134.8 135.8 136.6 137.3 137.9 138.6 139.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 4 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 10 11 13 18 16 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 28. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 5. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 15. 20. 28. 32. 29. 24. 18. 13. 7. 4. 2. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 130.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 06/23/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.38 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.54 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.0% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 8.2% 3.0% 0.9% 1.1% 0.5% 1.2% 21.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 9.4% 6.9% 0.3% 0.4% 5.1% 5.4% 7.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 06/23/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##