* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 06/23/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 41 49 52 58 64 64 59 54 49 44 40 38 38 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 41 49 52 58 64 64 59 54 49 44 40 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 32 36 40 44 47 46 41 35 30 27 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 11 10 10 15 18 17 15 9 0 5 7 9 10 11 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -3 0 -2 -4 -5 -8 -5 6 7 5 4 0 1 4 7 SHEAR DIR 104 92 83 71 59 41 60 66 65 358 173 143 126 114 124 163 72 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.6 26.0 25.5 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 143 142 143 141 142 138 133 128 121 115 121 124 125 128 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 74 71 68 67 67 63 63 60 59 55 53 46 41 37 38 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 12 13 15 13 16 18 17 15 12 9 7 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 59 78 81 73 67 58 37 45 37 20 -13 -17 -16 -6 -1 18 31 200 MB DIV 92 94 76 62 46 -9 -24 -5 22 27 9 -3 -1 -19 -43 -38 -1 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2506 2562 2625 2653 2615 2528 2431 2352 2251 2176 2081 2004 1920 1843 1753 1644 1507 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.3 10.0 9.7 9.5 9.3 9.5 9.9 10.7 11.8 13.0 13.9 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.6 131.1 131.6 132.3 132.8 133.8 134.7 135.3 135.9 136.1 136.5 136.9 137.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 4 3 5 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 10 10 12 16 21 23 19 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 30. 30. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 5. 9. 8. 5. 1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 16. 24. 27. 33. 39. 39. 34. 29. 24. 19. 15. 13. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 130.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 06/23/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.38 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.55 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -5.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.6% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 13.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 20.5% 8.8% 2.9% 3.3% 1.0% 1.4% 30.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 14.5% 9.3% 1.0% 1.1% 5.3% 5.1% 10.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 06/23/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##