* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932019 11/14/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 24 23 24 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 24 23 24 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 6 5 12 24 31 37 44 44 47 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 2 1 1 7 2 3 4 7 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 257 227 229 253 261 239 230 225 222 227 244 244 245 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.0 27.7 26.9 27.0 27.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 151 152 152 149 145 144 141 131 132 136 132 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 -55.7 -56.2 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 62 64 65 65 66 60 55 42 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 15 14 13 13 11 7 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 12 13 17 25 26 11 18 6 13 -10 0 -1 200 MB DIV 43 35 41 22 35 72 45 38 50 25 0 -15 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 8 11 4 0 1 9 LAND (KM) 818 801 780 782 786 777 742 582 358 200 112 42 39 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 6 7 8 9 9 6 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 21 24 23 14 10 9 8 3 3 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -6. -13. -21. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -6. -10. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -4. -12. -19. -23. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 108.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932019 INVEST 11/14/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.66 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.87 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.2% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 5.7% 2.7% 1.3% 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 8.2% 5.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932019 INVEST 11/14/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##