* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932019 06/25/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 44 46 41 32 22 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 44 46 41 32 22 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 32 33 31 27 21 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 12 10 7 6 7 12 19 24 31 32 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -4 -4 -5 -1 -4 -4 -3 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 31 70 101 89 84 108 181 192 204 206 233 227 229 SST (C) 29.6 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.8 27.5 27.2 25.8 24.6 23.3 23.1 21.1 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 162 158 154 140 137 122 110 96 94 73 61 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.6 -54.1 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 74 73 71 67 62 61 58 58 51 46 41 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 7 5 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 42 28 21 11 2 -23 -41 -34 -22 -29 -40 -40 -55 200 MB DIV 23 24 27 45 42 34 13 7 6 21 5 21 32 700-850 TADV -5 0 0 -6 -3 2 8 11 9 10 9 4 -13 LAND (KM) 476 499 523 571 608 764 795 875 917 932 865 727 597 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.6 14.8 15.2 16.0 16.7 17.7 18.8 20.5 22.5 25.0 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 104.1 105.3 106.4 107.5 108.7 111.3 113.8 116.3 118.4 120.1 121.3 121.6 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 43 29 21 16 12 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 18. 22. 25. 26. 25. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -5. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. -1. -4. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 19. 21. 16. 7. -3. -9. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 104.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932019 INVEST 06/25/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.53 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.0% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 18.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 8.1% 3.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 10.1% 7.9% 0.5% 0.3% 6.5% 6.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932019 INVEST 06/25/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##