* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 10/22/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 36 43 51 68 77 78 67 58 48 47 47 49 48 48 49 V (KT) LAND 25 29 36 43 51 68 77 78 67 48 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 34 44 53 56 57 45 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 15 10 4 2 5 14 17 25 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -8 -6 -1 2 -2 -7 -4 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 72 75 91 90 81 139 126 164 190 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 28.8 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 161 162 165 166 165 164 151 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 7 7 9 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 79 76 77 74 69 63 55 53 50 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 11 12 13 18 17 13 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 16 21 36 42 47 47 44 69 36 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 129 107 100 157 174 222 151 85 55 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -1 -2 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 403 422 442 427 413 349 306 238 89 -67 -191 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 5 5 4 4 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 18 19 20 21 23 23 23 23 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 54.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 27. 31. 34. 37. 40. 44. 47. 49. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 7. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 11. 18. 26. 43. 52. 53. 42. 33. 23. 22. 22. 24. 23. 23. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 99.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 10/22/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.86 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.48 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 53% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.4% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% 30.1% 52.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 32.9% 18.2% 12.3% 11.3% 56.4% 82.7% 30.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.2% 3.3% 0.7% 0.4% 1.2% 2.1% 7.2% Consensus: 0.8% 20.2% 13.8% 4.3% 3.9% 29.3% 45.9% 12.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 25.0% 9.0% 6.0% 4.0% 14.0% 14.0% 22.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 10/22/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##