* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 10/21/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 39 48 64 79 82 75 61 57 54 52 52 49 46 43 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 39 48 64 79 82 75 43 32 28 30 30 27 24 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 30 33 43 54 61 61 39 30 28 30 31 31 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 8 10 3 5 11 15 16 12 14 15 22 21 25 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -5 -5 -6 -4 -4 0 1 6 3 0 3 8 6 8 4 SHEAR DIR 101 100 89 71 68 87 93 134 162 183 233 233 262 267 263 257 261 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.9 30.4 30.6 30.1 28.5 27.9 28.3 28.7 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 158 159 161 167 170 166 149 142 147 151 156 153 151 154 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 6 5 7 7 9 8 8 7 10 10 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 83 82 81 81 79 76 71 64 61 63 63 63 57 51 43 37 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 13 17 21 17 11 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 29 30 35 36 50 52 57 57 51 14 5 -4 0 -19 -51 -34 200 MB DIV 103 135 152 136 129 180 214 173 129 51 50 23 22 6 5 5 5 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 4 5 12 15 18 6 4 0 LAND (KM) 330 338 353 362 362 348 286 177 25 -196 -157 -53 82 244 395 365 288 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.6 14.3 15.2 16.4 18.2 19.8 21.4 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.9 97.9 98.7 99.3 99.8 100.4 100.6 100.2 99.5 98.6 98.2 97.9 97.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 6 5 3 4 6 9 9 8 9 10 8 7 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 18 18 19 21 25 27 24 13 8 17 27 58 71 46 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 448 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 27. 31. 34. 36. 39. 42. 44. 46. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 13. 12. 4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 11. 9. 6. 4. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 14. 23. 39. 54. 57. 50. 36. 32. 29. 27. 27. 24. 21. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 96.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 10/21/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 131.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.85 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.61 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.4% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 51.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 38.9% 23.3% 15.9% 12.3% 62.4% 89.9% 47.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.8% 4.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.9% 1.4% 8.1% Consensus: 1.4% 22.4% 16.0% 5.6% 4.2% 29.4% 47.7% 18.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 16.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 18.0% 35.0% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 10/21/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##