* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 08/07/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 47 56 65 71 77 78 75 69 63 55 52 47 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 47 56 65 71 77 78 75 69 63 55 52 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 47 51 54 55 52 46 38 30 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 13 14 14 16 23 21 19 14 15 5 7 3 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -3 1 -4 4 1 -1 4 2 3 2 1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 38 36 48 40 40 58 70 56 41 31 54 64 32 41 110 271 246 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 28.9 28.3 28.3 28.3 27.9 26.8 24.2 21.9 21.4 20.7 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 154 154 154 156 153 147 145 145 143 133 107 83 78 70 65 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 84 83 84 83 84 81 80 80 82 82 82 76 74 66 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 11 11 15 17 21 23 27 28 29 26 25 21 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 12 4 8 24 15 29 44 57 71 78 66 70 54 52 32 37 31 200 MB DIV 92 81 66 103 118 103 110 102 94 116 45 76 18 -4 -21 18 -15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 -5 -10 -19 -11 -5 -1 -6 1 -4 1 7 LAND (KM) 320 330 355 389 419 527 661 734 791 746 593 445 472 587 876 1080 1245 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.8 16.8 16.8 17.4 19.0 21.4 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.3 105.0 105.7 106.4 107.3 109.0 110.7 112.7 113.9 114.1 113.9 114.6 116.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 4 6 10 14 17 17 17 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 18 17 16 15 13 10 13 11 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 34. 33. 31. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. -0. -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 9. 16. 21. 27. 28. 27. 21. 18. 13. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 22. 31. 40. 46. 52. 53. 50. 44. 38. 30. 27. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 104.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 08/07/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.38 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.23 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 6.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.2% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 8.4% 3.7% 1.8% 0.8% 11.1% 16.0% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 0.4% 8.6% 6.5% 0.7% 0.3% 8.6% 10.2% 1.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% 18.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 08/07/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##