* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 06/12/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 47 53 56 56 53 47 46 45 42 39 35 30 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 47 53 56 56 53 47 46 45 42 39 35 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 37 38 35 32 29 27 25 24 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 11 12 8 9 8 5 8 20 11 3 5 10 13 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 1 4 1 5 5 -1 0 4 3 1 1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 31 46 67 72 53 65 136 215 324 324 325 17 96 98 123 127 135 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 27.7 26.8 25.9 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 141 140 140 140 141 141 141 141 144 148 141 131 119 119 121 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 56 56 54 50 43 39 40 45 47 49 46 44 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 14 14 14 10 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 1 7 8 2 9 24 39 64 66 50 28 0 -16 -24 -32 -34 200 MB DIV 46 74 94 115 97 54 -19 -67 -65 -24 -5 -29 -24 -35 -24 -8 9 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -2 -1 -2 0 1 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 -2 2 5 LAND (KM) 1810 1858 1912 1963 2024 2141 2287 2413 2466 2417 2277 2078 1880 1710 1614 1638 1770 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.5 10.8 9.5 8.2 7.3 7.2 8.0 9.8 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.5 124.3 124.9 125.4 126.2 126.7 126.9 126.5 125.6 124.6 124.0 123.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 6 5 6 7 6 4 5 8 10 10 8 4 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 10 9 10 12 14 21 30 36 29 21 10 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. -1. -3. -6. -9. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 28. 31. 31. 28. 22. 21. 20. 17. 14. 10. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 122.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/12/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 8.8% 14.0% 1.5% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 7.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.1% 4.7% 0.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 8.0% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/12/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##