* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 06/12/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 48 56 63 65 66 63 61 57 51 43 35 27 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 48 56 63 65 66 63 61 57 51 43 35 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 39 42 45 45 43 40 36 31 26 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 12 14 12 9 11 5 9 9 8 7 10 11 15 17 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -3 -3 0 0 2 3 4 2 3 0 0 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 10 30 55 63 63 39 60 54 47 21 6 25 89 108 126 146 156 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.1 27.4 26.0 24.6 24.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 142 142 143 145 145 143 144 148 145 138 123 107 100 98 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 59 58 57 52 46 42 42 48 54 58 54 47 39 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 16 14 13 11 7 5 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 4 4 4 -1 -1 7 19 40 64 77 70 55 38 16 4 -19 -17 200 MB DIV 45 49 76 99 99 63 13 -34 -66 -32 26 -14 -24 -30 -19 -12 3 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -2 0 0 1 0 -1 -3 -4 -7 -2 -5 -4 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1770 1828 1878 1926 1961 2044 2141 2234 2291 2252 2133 1962 1757 1592 1477 1435 1472 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.1 10.7 9.9 9.0 8.3 8.3 9.2 10.8 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.3 122.2 123.0 123.6 124.0 124.7 125.1 125.3 125.2 124.6 124.0 123.6 123.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 5 4 4 5 4 3 4 7 10 10 9 6 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 15 15 15 15 18 24 29 30 26 18 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 8. 10. 8. 6. 3. -1. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 31. 38. 40. 41. 38. 36. 32. 26. 18. 10. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 121.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/12/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 7.5% 6.5% 0.9% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 6.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.7% 2.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/12/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##