* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 06/11/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 32 38 47 54 60 62 62 61 58 54 52 48 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 32 38 47 54 60 62 62 61 58 54 52 48 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 33 36 38 40 41 39 36 32 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 12 9 11 12 8 12 8 4 6 9 11 6 6 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -5 -3 0 -1 3 2 2 0 0 4 5 5 SHEAR DIR 56 40 42 45 37 68 60 45 81 124 38 352 325 16 88 110 96 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.1 27.6 26.7 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 143 142 141 142 144 147 145 142 145 148 145 139 129 120 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 67 67 69 67 66 62 62 58 50 46 41 45 51 52 52 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 10 11 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 10 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 8 9 8 6 13 11 28 49 73 74 65 46 27 0 -17 200 MB DIV -5 13 26 52 59 66 59 30 -23 -51 -45 -13 -7 -29 -26 -15 -35 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 0 1 1 0 -3 -6 -7 -5 -5 -2 1 LAND (KM) 1650 1708 1762 1802 1853 1927 1991 2052 2131 2214 2257 2226 2140 1993 1831 1694 1592 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.7 10.3 9.5 8.8 8.4 8.6 9.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.9 120.7 121.4 122.1 123.2 123.9 124.3 124.4 124.7 124.8 124.6 124.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 4 3 3 4 3 0 3 6 8 8 7 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 15 20 19 18 18 18 19 23 28 30 29 24 16 7 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 35. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 22. 29. 35. 37. 37. 36. 33. 29. 27. 23. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 119.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/11/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.52 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.77 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.7% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.6% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 3.9% 3.8% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/11/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##