* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 06/11/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 38 46 53 57 59 57 54 50 46 45 44 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 38 46 53 57 59 57 54 50 46 45 44 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 40 40 38 34 30 25 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 10 7 11 10 12 9 3 11 12 14 8 1 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 0 -1 -3 -2 0 6 1 3 4 10 11 4 0 SHEAR DIR 45 37 35 48 72 58 68 47 85 288 347 5 319 302 68 125 119 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 149 148 150 151 151 150 144 141 139 139 141 143 145 142 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 64 66 66 65 65 63 61 59 54 45 40 36 37 38 37 32 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 6 5 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 9 5 8 12 13 12 22 29 23 32 63 62 41 20 7 -6 -21 200 MB DIV -5 -6 12 43 77 75 63 63 7 -52 -79 -86 -52 -37 -59 -41 0 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1580 1642 1701 1755 1813 1929 2028 2137 2261 2409 2508 2537 2508 2463 2405 2361 2348 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.1 10.8 10.1 9.0 7.5 6.3 5.7 5.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.3 119.3 120.2 121.1 121.9 123.5 124.6 125.3 125.7 125.9 125.8 125.5 125.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 5 7 7 5 2 2 4 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 16 19 20 23 21 21 24 33 45 49 45 42 35 22 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 3. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 13. 21. 28. 32. 34. 32. 29. 25. 21. 20. 19. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 118.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/11/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.57 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.80 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.9% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 4.5% 4.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/11/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##