* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 06/10/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 27 29 31 36 45 54 63 66 70 71 69 64 60 55 53 V (KT) LAND 25 27 27 29 31 36 45 54 63 66 70 71 69 64 60 55 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 34 38 42 46 50 50 46 41 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 11 12 6 11 8 8 10 4 13 10 10 11 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 -3 -3 0 0 6 0 0 1 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 81 64 38 38 35 42 36 60 43 56 320 342 3 320 290 196 165 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 147 147 148 148 149 151 150 146 144 142 139 137 140 142 143 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -53.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 5 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 67 68 68 67 66 63 60 58 54 44 34 31 32 33 32 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 7 10 10 11 11 11 13 12 11 11 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 23 17 10 3 5 15 23 23 33 35 45 63 50 30 17 11 0 200 MB DIV 13 7 -10 2 2 58 85 103 78 51 14 -59 -106 -69 -9 -27 -48 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1452 1514 1580 1642 1699 1805 1920 2033 2154 2300 2450 2564 2624 2619 2578 2496 2435 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.2 10.9 10.3 9.1 7.7 6.5 5.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.3 118.3 119.3 120.3 121.9 123.5 124.8 125.8 126.4 126.8 126.9 126.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 7 7 5 3 1 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 11 11 12 15 19 22 20 19 19 26 35 48 52 47 34 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 3. 4. 6. 5. 6. 8. 6. 4. 4. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 4. 6. 11. 20. 29. 38. 41. 45. 46. 44. 39. 35. 30. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 116.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/10/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.49 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.77 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.1% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 9.9% 3.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 8.4% 5.3% 0.4% 0.3% 4.7% 4.9% 1.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/10/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##