* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 06/07/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 23 25 27 30 33 34 35 35 38 41 43 45 46 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 23 25 27 30 33 34 35 35 38 41 43 45 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 18 22 23 19 20 19 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -3 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 95 97 93 108 116 95 88 87 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 155 153 154 155 152 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 58 55 55 57 61 64 67 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 11 14 9 11 13 13 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 3 0 -7 -8 -6 -19 -18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 2 3 -2 -3 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 843 874 904 948 993 1073 1275 1463 1582 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 8 12 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 59 59 56 43 30 19 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 35. 38. 40. 43. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 109.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/07/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.07 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.45 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.6% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.3% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/07/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##