* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 06/06/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 25 29 31 32 34 36 38 41 44 47 48 50 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 25 29 31 32 34 36 38 41 44 47 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 21 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 11 12 16 21 21 20 17 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 120 114 106 105 102 115 107 107 106 93 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 157 155 153 153 153 153 148 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 57 56 56 59 63 67 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 7 6 7 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 4 9 9 11 9 5 10 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -8 -2 0 16 -14 -26 -37 -15 23 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 2 2 4 2 4 5 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 790 810 831 871 914 1018 1125 1267 1374 1455 1537 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 5 5 7 8 8 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 59 59 55 46 22 16 18 30 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 40. 42. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 19. 22. 23. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 108.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/06/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.42 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.18 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.50 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.3% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 3.2% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/06/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##