* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 06/06/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 26 32 37 40 41 40 40 43 46 49 51 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 32 37 40 41 40 40 43 46 49 51 51 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 25 23 22 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 11 12 11 14 20 21 20 17 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 0 1 0 2 -1 0 -1 0 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 138 138 124 124 118 107 116 106 110 101 101 86 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 158 158 158 156 154 153 154 150 148 148 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 61 60 60 58 62 64 66 67 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -6 -5 -2 7 19 18 14 9 1 1 -1 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 11 -6 -16 -9 25 -5 -15 -1 -14 14 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 3 4 5 3 3 3 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 754 774 789 810 831 901 946 1012 1125 1218 1307 1376 1482 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 3 3 4 4 3 5 5 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 45 51 57 60 54 40 25 17 15 19 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 37. 40. 42. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 7. 12. 16. 16. 15. 15. 18. 21. 24. 26. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 107.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/06/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.56 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.46 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.0% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 5.6% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 1.4% 1.4% 9.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 7.2% 5.7% 0.3% 0.1% 5.2% 4.6% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/06/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##