* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 06/06/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 25 28 34 37 39 39 40 42 45 49 51 52 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 25 28 34 37 39 39 40 42 45 49 51 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 24 24 25 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 9 11 12 13 14 18 20 16 15 12 8 4 4 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 2 2 4 5 SHEAR DIR 142 128 134 130 121 108 101 105 102 106 102 84 72 88 125 217 261 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.3 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.4 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 158 159 156 154 155 151 149 149 148 137 135 139 139 138 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 67 64 63 61 62 62 59 59 59 61 62 60 58 57 52 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -12 -11 -9 -6 4 8 6 6 0 -4 -8 -8 -7 -7 -15 -19 200 MB DIV 43 37 6 0 0 0 22 -13 -21 -21 1 -1 8 19 20 0 -14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 3 -1 -1 0 2 0 3 2 6 3 LAND (KM) 737 777 813 829 845 938 1032 1127 1298 1403 1487 1597 1744 1826 1864 1977 2199 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 3 2 4 5 5 7 9 8 8 10 8 4 6 12 16 HEAT CONTENT 34 44 57 60 61 47 26 17 17 24 12 12 8 14 18 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. 39. 40. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. -0. 3. 9. 12. 14. 14. 15. 17. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 107.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/06/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.56 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.47 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.87 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.1% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 4.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.9% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 6.9% 5.7% 0.2% 0.1% 5.1% 4.7% 2.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/06/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##