* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 06/05/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 31 38 45 51 52 54 56 57 57 57 57 56 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 27 31 38 45 51 52 54 56 57 57 57 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 28 27 25 24 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 9 9 11 11 13 12 15 13 9 6 9 8 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 1 3 6 7 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 192 175 161 160 151 137 111 110 88 99 115 116 87 75 74 52 344 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.1 27.6 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 156 156 159 156 154 153 150 146 145 140 133 132 136 136 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 63 60 61 58 57 58 59 60 59 58 59 55 51 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 8 8 9 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -15 -7 -5 -2 12 19 16 11 6 -3 -2 -11 -11 -22 -34 -45 200 MB DIV 59 40 21 -7 -1 2 25 12 -13 30 29 57 16 21 14 0 -12 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 2 4 5 5 3 1 3 3 3 2 3 4 5 LAND (KM) 694 702 712 727 740 815 909 1034 1156 1267 1334 1452 1620 1712 1738 1861 2088 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 9 5 6 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 32 37 44 58 47 22 16 21 22 9 7 5 5 6 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. 38. 39. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 32. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 107.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/05/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.65 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.31 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.9% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 9.0% 3.8% 1.6% 0.4% 2.1% 3.3% 15.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 10.0% 7.0% 0.5% 0.1% 6.0% 5.9% 5.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 18.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/05/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##