* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 06/05/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 57 64 66 66 64 62 60 62 61 58 54 53 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 57 64 66 66 64 62 60 62 61 58 54 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 39 43 47 50 53 55 55 55 53 50 48 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 7 7 8 10 11 12 14 15 14 12 8 10 13 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 0 -4 -1 0 -4 -5 -1 0 3 -2 -4 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 102 181 165 143 128 131 126 115 109 106 117 119 82 62 59 68 57 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 157 157 157 155 153 153 149 145 141 139 132 132 133 132 133 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 65 63 61 62 59 56 54 56 56 53 56 59 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -11 -13 -11 -11 2 4 13 14 19 7 5 1 -1 -14 -23 -26 200 MB DIV 68 64 46 21 3 -7 5 30 -7 6 4 37 38 22 27 -2 -15 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 2 1 2 2 1 -2 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 769 769 767 776 786 863 923 1024 1171 1234 1293 1418 1623 1757 1851 1987 2204 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 7 8 7 8 12 12 7 7 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 42 47 52 55 56 48 31 18 16 25 11 5 3 4 4 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 34. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 27. 34. 36. 36. 34. 32. 30. 32. 31. 28. 24. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 108.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/05/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.46 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 36.9% 24.4% 22.4% 0.0% 21.0% 17.3% 20.2% Logistic: 14.9% 40.3% 23.1% 13.3% 2.4% 11.8% 6.5% 23.7% Bayesian: 7.2% 16.7% 5.8% 1.8% 0.4% 1.6% 1.3% 0.1% Consensus: 11.9% 31.3% 17.8% 12.5% 0.9% 11.5% 8.3% 14.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/05/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##