* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 06/04/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 23 29 39 48 56 61 64 66 67 66 65 61 60 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 23 29 39 48 56 61 64 66 67 66 65 61 60 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 29 31 33 33 33 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 3 5 9 9 15 14 13 14 17 19 20 14 13 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 -4 1 -2 0 -1 1 0 1 1 5 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 279 283 222 175 180 124 110 105 97 82 64 70 69 76 70 97 340 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.7 26.8 26.6 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 157 157 156 157 155 153 152 149 150 148 145 140 132 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 75 74 69 66 64 63 60 54 56 57 56 56 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 11 13 15 16 16 16 16 16 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -19 -21 -20 -13 -4 -8 -10 0 6 3 6 -4 -7 -13 -12 -20 200 MB DIV 21 25 41 37 31 50 26 19 22 65 45 58 33 43 1 1 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 762 756 739 750 758 812 891 980 1079 1203 1353 1428 1473 1555 1658 1740 1856 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.4 13.1 12.8 12.4 11.9 11.5 11.5 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.8 108.1 108.5 108.8 109.4 110.2 111.1 112.0 113.1 114.6 116.2 117.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 7 8 7 7 8 9 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 37 39 39 45 48 54 45 26 17 14 19 19 10 7 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. 45. 46. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. 10. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 19. 28. 36. 41. 44. 46. 47. 47. 45. 41. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.6 107.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/04/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 33.8% 17.1% 8.8% 2.9% 16.4% 16.5% 35.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 1.9% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 12.3% 5.8% 3.0% 1.0% 5.7% 6.1% 12.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/04/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##