* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 09/12/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 36 40 43 44 40 39 37 36 35 33 29 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 36 40 43 44 40 39 37 36 35 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 23 21 20 20 18 17 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 12 15 17 14 9 12 12 13 8 8 9 12 16 17 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 6 5 -2 0 1 0 -1 -4 -4 0 1 0 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 58 54 56 44 26 41 25 52 46 65 81 98 144 163 189 206 217 SST (C) 28.4 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 27.5 27.3 26.4 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.6 25.3 23.9 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 151 150 150 139 137 128 130 129 131 130 129 128 115 101 93 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 80 80 76 73 72 66 61 56 55 57 58 57 53 48 44 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 19 19 18 19 20 21 23 20 19 17 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 50 56 51 50 49 49 49 71 57 55 42 33 30 30 25 16 3 200 MB DIV 80 93 93 83 56 35 10 0 -3 -11 -32 -9 0 13 25 9 11 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -7 -9 -11 -2 -1 -8 -9 -6 -2 0 2 2 3 5 8 LAND (KM) 698 748 698 687 696 771 876 1040 1195 1301 1376 1398 1382 1359 1362 1375 1418 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.5 18.1 19.0 19.4 19.6 19.6 19.4 19.1 19.0 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.4 112.3 113.2 114.3 116.4 118.5 120.7 122.6 123.9 124.6 124.8 124.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 11 11 11 10 10 8 4 2 1 3 5 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 15 17 14 12 5 5 1 2 4 7 7 5 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 30. 31. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 15. 14. 12. 11. 10. 8. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 110.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 09/12/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.27 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.59 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -5.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.6% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 16.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.4% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 5.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 09/12/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##