* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 09/12/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 39 43 47 51 51 47 44 42 41 39 37 33 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 39 43 47 51 51 47 44 42 41 39 37 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 28 26 25 24 24 22 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 13 13 15 12 10 12 10 5 3 4 5 14 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 5 7 5 -3 2 0 -2 -4 -5 -3 2 3 1 1 3 SHEAR DIR 49 45 36 40 40 37 44 20 50 42 64 63 171 167 193 216 215 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.3 26.7 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.1 24.9 24.3 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 151 151 150 146 137 131 123 123 125 125 123 121 110 105 94 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 75 73 69 63 58 55 55 58 57 54 49 43 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 18 19 21 21 21 22 23 24 22 20 19 18 16 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 41 48 52 47 44 51 41 58 62 52 60 44 46 43 38 -5 -12 200 MB DIV 72 80 102 104 84 27 18 8 -7 -11 -36 -2 -3 -2 10 -3 -9 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -12 -9 -6 -4 -1 -2 -8 -6 -4 0 0 3 5 7 6 LAND (KM) 669 710 755 723 687 706 771 895 1067 1199 1305 1367 1375 1331 1262 1192 1133 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.6 19.4 20.0 20.3 20.3 20.1 20.0 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.2 111.2 112.1 113.0 115.0 117.0 119.3 121.6 123.5 124.7 125.4 125.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 4 2 1 4 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 13 18 14 9 4 2 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. 29. 29. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 8. 10. 14. 14. 11. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 14. 18. 22. 26. 26. 22. 19. 17. 16. 14. 12. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.9 109.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 09/12/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.30 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.63 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.90 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.6% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 18.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 8.9% 7.0% 0.1% 0.0% 6.0% 6.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 09/12/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##