* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 09/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 30 33 36 40 45 52 53 51 47 43 39 37 36 37 37 V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 33 36 40 45 52 53 51 47 43 39 37 36 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 29 27 25 24 22 21 20 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 15 12 14 16 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 7 9 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 4 6 -1 0 2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 -4 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 49 55 45 45 41 38 39 35 49 39 67 65 118 166 172 196 186 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.7 27.5 27.2 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 148 151 152 152 139 137 123 124 125 128 124 122 122 122 121 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 79 80 80 79 74 70 64 60 56 56 58 60 54 49 45 39 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 17 19 19 20 21 23 22 21 19 17 15 13 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 34 43 46 58 51 43 54 60 72 62 56 55 50 47 45 40 29 200 MB DIV 72 88 90 100 101 35 21 10 -5 -8 -25 -17 -4 -7 -14 -9 0 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -11 -8 -11 -4 -3 -3 -7 -3 -4 -2 0 0 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 627 654 686 716 693 643 704 800 970 1127 1267 1366 1427 1473 1489 1514 1548 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.2 16.9 18.2 19.3 19.9 20.3 20.4 20.1 19.8 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.0 109.1 110.0 110.9 111.8 113.6 115.7 118.0 120.4 122.6 124.2 125.2 125.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 9 6 4 2 1 1 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 9 10 12 17 13 5 4 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 30. 30. 30. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 13. 14. 13. 10. 7. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 8. 11. 15. 20. 27. 28. 26. 22. 18. 14. 12. 12. 12. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 108.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 09/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.21 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.64 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.7% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 7.5% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 5.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 7.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 09/12/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##