* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 09/11/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 37 40 46 49 54 53 53 50 48 46 47 49 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 37 40 46 49 54 53 53 50 48 46 47 49 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 32 33 33 33 33 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 22 15 13 17 15 10 8 9 7 8 6 4 1 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 1 3 6 -3 2 -2 0 -1 -4 -8 -4 -1 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 54 55 57 74 69 54 59 61 46 67 88 93 100 158 58 217 277 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 27.5 26.8 26.5 26.6 26.1 26.4 25.8 26.9 27.1 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 147 150 151 150 140 133 129 130 125 127 121 132 134 141 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 81 79 81 81 79 75 70 66 59 59 58 57 59 58 56 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 15 15 16 15 16 16 15 14 13 11 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 31 30 44 48 55 46 46 45 50 70 67 69 68 67 55 49 36 200 MB DIV 58 79 80 96 107 69 34 15 -6 9 11 -10 6 23 8 -7 -16 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -7 -3 -4 -7 -4 -5 0 -5 1 -4 0 -3 -2 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 609 622 625 653 679 657 661 770 924 1137 1305 1498 1699 1876 2072 2261 2130 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.1 17.4 18.6 19.2 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.5 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.9 108.7 109.6 110.4 112.3 114.4 116.7 119.4 122.0 124.4 126.6 128.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 10 10 11 15 11 5 3 1 2 0 1 0 9 7 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 31. 31. 32. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 7. 8. 10. 9. 8. 7. 4. 2. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 21. 24. 29. 28. 28. 26. 23. 21. 22. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 106.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 09/11/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.06 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.60 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -5.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.92 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.9% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.8% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 5.8% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 7.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 09/11/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##