* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 08/12/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 37 38 39 36 34 32 33 35 36 36 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 37 38 39 36 34 32 33 35 36 36 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 23 21 20 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 14 17 21 18 20 24 27 25 20 18 14 13 15 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 -1 -3 2 0 -3 -2 2 0 1 5 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 352 349 21 38 48 59 56 63 58 60 57 52 40 41 25 55 67 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 141 139 138 141 141 139 137 135 135 138 140 143 143 139 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 62 61 62 60 58 51 47 44 41 40 39 42 42 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 12 13 14 15 14 12 12 10 9 7 7 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 13 10 12 2 -1 -11 -7 11 -1 5 3 2 3 5 10 6 0 200 MB DIV 89 82 53 30 14 40 11 7 -10 -36 -29 -52 -23 -43 -31 -32 -5 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -11 -8 -6 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2043 2101 2162 2205 2247 2338 2374 2265 2166 2074 1971 1862 1764 1646 1522 1400 1272 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.2 128.0 128.9 129.7 130.5 131.9 133.3 134.4 135.3 136.1 137.0 138.0 139.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 8 7 7 6 4 4 5 4 4 6 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 8 8 8 8 10 9 8 7 7 10 15 10 10 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -10. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 13. 14. 11. 9. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 127.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 08/12/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.28 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.45 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.03 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.85 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.5% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 08/12/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##