* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 08/12/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 33 38 41 42 42 39 37 36 38 37 38 38 37 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 33 38 41 42 42 39 37 36 38 37 38 38 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 26 24 23 21 20 20 19 19 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 5 8 12 17 19 22 23 25 21 19 17 12 5 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 2 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 0 0 0 1 4 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 29 1 351 36 41 59 65 64 61 60 61 49 44 50 9 306 255 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 141 140 136 140 140 138 138 136 136 136 138 138 139 138 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 65 65 62 63 63 62 63 58 58 50 50 45 45 41 42 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 12 13 15 13 11 10 7 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 9 4 -4 -14 -10 -1 16 12 22 12 30 27 32 27 17 200 MB DIV 92 96 88 64 31 10 12 0 -3 -3 -20 -10 -28 -16 -9 -23 -2 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -11 -9 -5 -1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1963 1989 2040 2101 2141 2252 2387 2258 2146 2044 1970 1891 1837 1776 1706 1641 1563 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.3 14.2 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.3 126.9 127.7 128.6 129.5 131.3 132.9 134.3 135.5 136.5 137.2 137.9 138.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 8 8 7 11 10 7 7 7 9 11 14 13 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -6. -7. -8. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 16. 17. 17. 14. 12. 11. 13. 12. 13. 13. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 126.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 08/12/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.62 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.55 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.27 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.2% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 13.0% 9.4% 2.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 12.5% 9.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 08/12/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##