* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 08/12/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 31 33 36 40 43 45 46 47 48 50 52 52 50 49 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 31 33 36 40 43 45 46 47 48 50 52 52 50 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 25 24 23 23 23 23 23 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 19 23 21 24 25 28 28 27 24 25 25 22 23 27 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -4 -3 -4 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 -4 -3 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 63 56 42 44 47 50 67 75 85 79 81 78 76 65 73 95 96 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 146 144 142 142 141 141 142 141 143 145 146 146 144 142 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 66 67 66 67 66 64 68 69 71 65 64 61 63 63 69 71 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 35 23 16 11 3 -4 -12 0 0 3 -2 0 0 -7 -3 2 200 MB DIV 115 109 86 72 61 36 30 -14 -2 -14 6 5 42 68 58 44 52 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 1 1 1 0 0 1 3 2 3 2 3 LAND (KM) 2252 2323 2364 2413 2464 2547 2498 2417 2368 2338 2324 2329 2378 2430 2476 2527 2573 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.2 128.9 129.5 130.1 130.8 132.0 133.0 133.9 134.5 134.9 135.1 135.1 134.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 3 3 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 13 15 20 26 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 32. 33. 34. 36. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -16. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 25. 27. 27. 25. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 128.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 08/12/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 7.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 8.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 1.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 08/12/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##