* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 08/11/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 27 30 34 39 41 43 43 44 46 46 45 45 46 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 27 30 34 39 41 43 43 44 46 46 45 45 46 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 12 16 18 21 14 19 23 25 22 19 21 20 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -6 -4 0 -1 -3 0 -1 -4 -6 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 52 64 37 20 3 15 18 37 31 49 50 58 48 56 63 74 80 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 147 148 147 145 143 142 141 140 139 139 141 141 141 142 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 68 68 68 67 63 64 62 63 61 62 59 57 54 54 58 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 38 44 37 28 20 13 -3 -13 8 8 -5 -17 -17 -23 -6 -8 200 MB DIV 112 136 133 131 109 63 25 23 3 -10 -11 -14 5 6 -16 18 55 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -8 -9 -14 -12 -9 -5 -1 0 0 1 0 2 2 4 4 LAND (KM) 2026 2041 2080 2144 2209 2322 2409 2362 2206 2085 1998 1963 1962 1985 2015 2046 2078 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.3 126.6 127.1 127.8 128.6 130.4 132.0 133.6 135.1 136.3 137.2 137.6 137.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 6 7 8 9 8 8 7 5 3 1 1 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 793 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. 38. 40. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 14. 19. 21. 23. 23. 24. 26. 26. 25. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.3 126.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 08/11/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 08/11/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##