* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 06/25/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 14 14 16 13 13 14 10 8 4 2 4 7 12 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 6 5 2 2 1 6 5 10 6 1 -3 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 106 110 115 130 130 126 103 112 107 98 94 241 224 226 224 229 230 SST (C) 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.9 25.8 26.3 26.9 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 129 123 120 120 126 133 141 140 141 143 144 143 141 137 136 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 59 55 53 51 49 45 39 41 39 41 43 49 52 54 53 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 16 8 8 15 19 10 14 12 10 4 3 -15 -30 -49 -69 -71 200 MB DIV 38 27 14 -7 -18 -3 -4 -8 -12 -50 -51 -42 -6 23 24 21 -2 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 4 6 4 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1454 1463 1475 1506 1537 1633 1776 1986 2221 2464 2623 2538 2457 2358 2238 2143 2113 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.7 15.2 14.0 12.7 11.3 10.1 9.3 9.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.4 122.0 122.5 123.0 123.5 124.6 125.9 127.4 129.1 130.8 132.4 133.7 134.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 6 8 10 11 11 9 6 4 5 5 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 3 1 0 0 2 4 7 9 9 14 21 24 21 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -9. -7. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.9 121.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 06/25/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.27 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.23 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -3.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.4% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 06/25/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##