* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 06/24/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 20 19 18 19 21 23 24 27 27 27 27 29 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 20 19 18 19 21 23 24 27 27 27 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 18 16 14 13 18 16 17 15 12 9 4 6 11 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 5 3 2 5 1 0 -2 -3 -3 -2 1 0 -6 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 64 69 85 102 98 102 110 114 109 117 112 115 135 272 257 250 265 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.1 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.3 27.3 28.0 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 144 134 128 124 123 125 137 145 142 145 146 146 146 146 144 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 73 70 68 64 61 55 50 44 42 44 45 46 46 45 42 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 9 8 8 7 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 2 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 13 7 -1 -14 -21 -16 -19 -7 -1 0 -7 -14 -14 -18 -28 -42 200 MB DIV 45 18 16 7 -1 -4 -28 -9 -30 -14 -40 -58 -45 -35 -16 16 29 700-850 TADV -10 -6 -2 -1 -2 0 2 -1 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 1648 1683 1678 1671 1676 1693 1760 1877 2086 2350 2623 2692 2663 2615 2540 2435 2343 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.5 14.1 14.5 15.1 15.2 14.6 13.3 11.5 9.7 7.9 6.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.1 122.2 122.9 123.5 124.0 124.8 125.7 126.6 128.0 129.6 131.3 132.9 134.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 7 6 4 4 7 11 12 13 11 8 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 32 26 17 7 3 1 1 1 6 10 8 13 29 38 39 32 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 408 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 4. 2. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 121.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 06/24/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.10 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.26 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.6% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.4% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 3.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 06/24/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##