* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 06/23/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 44 47 48 47 46 45 41 38 36 33 32 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 44 47 48 47 46 45 41 38 36 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 28 29 28 26 24 22 20 19 18 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 8 9 7 9 5 4 5 6 8 16 20 17 16 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 5 6 4 4 3 4 3 5 3 -1 -1 1 4 8 9 SHEAR DIR 54 27 32 60 91 79 158 159 180 152 121 102 111 109 99 90 54 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 28.7 28.0 28.0 27.2 25.4 25.1 25.3 25.1 24.5 24.7 25.0 25.9 26.5 26.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 153 146 146 136 117 113 115 112 106 108 112 122 129 131 134 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 66 67 60 57 55 52 51 46 45 38 37 37 40 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 47 48 41 33 35 2 3 31 43 31 33 27 21 19 28 23 200 MB DIV 78 91 86 101 84 38 8 1 16 2 -15 -10 8 -13 -17 -43 -29 700-850 TADV -6 -15 -16 -11 -5 -4 1 6 5 4 3 4 3 3 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1243 1305 1342 1374 1423 1481 1569 1689 1778 1857 1944 2063 2204 2328 2218 2118 2000 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.3 13.9 15.0 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.7 16.8 16.5 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.7 115.3 116.8 118.2 119.6 121.9 123.9 125.6 127.0 128.5 129.7 130.9 132.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 14 11 9 7 7 6 6 6 8 9 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 59 28 16 14 23 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 25. 24. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 19. 22. 23. 22. 21. 20. 16. 13. 11. 8. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 113.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 06/23/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.58 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.62 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.6% 24.7% 0.0% 0.0% 20.9% 19.5% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 37.4% 20.8% 10.2% 2.1% 5.0% 0.6% 1.5% Bayesian: 1.1% 3.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 22.3% 15.6% 3.5% 0.7% 8.7% 6.7% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 06/23/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##