* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 06/22/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 32 38 42 45 45 46 46 44 42 41 41 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 32 38 42 45 45 46 46 44 42 41 41 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 23 21 19 19 18 17 17 16 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 9 8 9 5 4 2 3 4 6 9 13 12 14 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 5 10 12 7 8 5 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 58 48 32 19 32 38 44 195 161 149 123 101 104 106 96 75 39 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.0 28.4 27.6 26.9 25.4 25.0 25.3 25.7 25.4 25.9 27.1 27.8 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 161 157 150 141 133 117 112 115 118 115 121 134 141 141 139 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 71 70 69 66 63 57 53 51 49 47 47 48 49 51 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 43 41 38 38 46 27 -1 5 19 27 22 21 31 38 40 18 200 MB DIV 87 97 85 96 87 71 24 -5 2 -1 -11 -31 -11 -12 5 11 8 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -14 -16 -14 -10 0 1 2 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 LAND (KM) 1094 1179 1259 1284 1304 1382 1447 1546 1672 1780 1876 1990 2131 2282 2434 2529 2535 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.3 14.5 15.4 15.9 16.1 16.1 15.9 15.4 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.8 114.2 115.7 117.1 119.7 121.9 123.7 125.4 126.8 127.9 128.9 129.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 12 10 9 7 6 5 6 6 8 7 5 2 HEAT CONTENT 49 56 51 21 14 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 17. 20. 20. 21. 21. 19. 17. 16. 16. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 111.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 06/22/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.55 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.64 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.34 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -5.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.6% 25.6% 0.0% 0.0% 22.9% 22.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 12.9% 5.2% 2.5% 0.2% 4.9% 0.6% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 13.9% 10.4% 0.9% 0.1% 9.3% 7.7% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 06/22/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##