* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 06/22/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 37 42 46 46 47 46 44 41 40 40 41 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 37 42 46 46 47 46 44 41 40 40 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 24 23 22 20 19 18 17 16 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 7 9 6 9 2 3 1 6 12 14 13 10 9 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 4 10 9 4 4 4 3 2 -1 0 3 4 5 4 SHEAR DIR 54 52 44 27 15 27 45 192 90 224 63 95 112 120 121 103 96 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 28.9 27.5 27.2 26.0 25.1 25.0 25.2 25.6 25.6 26.4 27.5 27.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 159 160 156 140 137 123 113 112 113 117 118 128 140 142 146 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 68 66 63 57 54 51 49 48 44 45 45 49 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 39 37 36 31 34 31 2 -6 4 8 -8 -2 0 10 15 9 200 MB DIV 50 74 86 79 83 83 41 20 -7 4 -7 -19 -21 -12 -41 -33 -23 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -8 -12 -13 -6 -5 2 3 2 4 3 3 4 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 994 1055 1125 1206 1220 1295 1381 1459 1572 1682 1763 1845 1992 2202 2446 2599 2575 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.2 14.3 15.2 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.1 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.8 111.2 112.5 113.9 115.4 118.3 120.7 122.6 124.2 125.6 126.8 127.7 128.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 14 12 9 7 7 5 5 8 10 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 46 51 51 22 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 10 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 12. 17. 21. 21. 22. 21. 19. 16. 15. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 109.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 06/22/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.58 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.55 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.37 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -5.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.83 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.7% 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 21.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 9.9% 4.1% 1.8% 0.2% 3.1% 0.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 12.1% 9.5% 0.6% 0.1% 8.3% 7.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 06/22/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##