* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 06/22/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 39 44 48 48 46 43 41 39 34 30 27 23 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 39 44 48 48 46 43 41 39 34 30 27 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 34 35 34 32 29 25 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 6 5 2 2 1 6 12 12 8 13 13 13 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 1 0 4 12 4 5 5 6 7 12 2 -2 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 67 57 60 43 24 345 20 140 201 221 231 156 135 140 133 125 139 SST (C) 29.4 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 27.9 27.4 25.8 25.0 25.3 24.8 23.6 23.9 23.4 23.2 23.4 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 158 159 158 145 139 122 113 116 110 97 100 95 93 96 107 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 68 66 62 60 55 54 53 52 50 46 37 31 29 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 37 38 41 38 36 54 16 -3 44 41 37 20 14 13 11 22 200 MB DIV 67 52 70 83 79 78 48 19 -11 13 15 -21 -10 5 -2 -31 -38 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -8 -13 -5 -7 2 4 5 8 7 6 4 5 6 4 LAND (KM) 915 974 1034 1120 1178 1271 1392 1506 1656 1777 1881 1934 1992 2103 2212 2063 1899 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.1 15.0 15.8 16.2 16.4 16.8 17.5 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.6 110.1 111.5 113.0 114.5 117.7 120.6 123.1 125.3 127.1 128.9 130.2 131.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 16 14 12 9 9 8 6 6 6 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 40 48 34 10 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 28. 27. 25. 23. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 19. 23. 24. 21. 18. 16. 14. 9. 5. 2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 108.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 06/22/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.53 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.34 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -6.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 32.5% 28.6% 0.0% 0.0% 25.7% 33.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 25.8% 13.3% 7.8% 1.4% 12.1% 2.0% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 19.9% 14.1% 2.6% 0.5% 12.6% 12.0% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 06/22/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##