* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 10/30/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 24 26 30 35 34 31 27 25 21 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 24 26 30 35 34 31 27 25 21 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 11 15 16 13 15 20 28 30 34 35 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 5 7 0 0 0 2 9 9 8 3 SHEAR DIR 59 72 67 68 90 139 175 205 221 243 255 264 258 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.7 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 152 153 153 152 149 143 140 132 127 122 117 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 49 47 46 43 41 36 34 36 40 48 48 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 2 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 11 6 -5 -6 14 7 10 10 6 -7 -20 -22 200 MB DIV 46 66 58 44 22 -5 -25 -1 4 3 3 -5 7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 0 3 6 4 5 3 4 5 7 LAND (KM) 790 826 848 862 868 892 962 889 865 830 764 656 480 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.7 14.6 15.9 17.0 18.2 19.2 20.2 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.9 107.8 108.6 109.4 110.9 112.6 114.1 115.4 116.2 116.6 116.3 115.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 6 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 19 21 20 19 18 9 8 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -4. -9. -14. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 10. 15. 14. 11. 7. 5. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.6 106.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 10/30/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 5.0% 3.6% 1.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 1.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 2.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 10/30/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##