* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 10/29/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 26 29 32 36 39 37 35 34 34 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 26 29 32 36 39 37 35 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 23 22 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 11 12 14 16 20 22 25 25 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 2 2 -4 -3 -4 1 4 6 5 SHEAR DIR 57 73 79 78 73 111 159 186 193 219 240 255 255 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 149 151 153 152 152 148 143 140 138 136 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 56 53 49 47 47 42 36 37 40 41 44 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 4 2 2 4 4 5 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 13 13 4 4 10 8 19 27 18 12 -3 200 MB DIV 50 55 81 73 77 12 -1 -21 14 21 -23 -26 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 5 4 3 1 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 753 780 811 846 866 889 923 965 914 877 875 893 898 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.2 12.9 13.7 14.6 15.5 16.3 16.8 17.0 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 105.1 106.0 106.8 107.6 108.4 109.9 111.3 112.7 113.8 114.6 115.3 115.8 116.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 3 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 15 18 21 19 20 17 11 8 8 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 17. 15. 14. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.6 105.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 10/29/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 5.5% 3.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 10/29/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##