* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 10/29/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 25 29 34 37 37 34 30 26 23 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 25 29 34 37 37 34 30 26 23 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 24 23 21 18 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 11 11 11 12 14 18 24 29 29 34 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 4 3 2 0 -2 0 0 5 5 6 SHEAR DIR 51 57 72 76 72 95 148 180 202 218 239 245 257 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.7 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.7 27.3 27.6 26.9 26.2 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 151 157 157 153 151 137 139 131 123 120 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 59 56 53 50 49 42 39 38 39 42 48 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 14 19 14 9 -7 14 7 9 25 9 0 -12 200 MB DIV 41 44 40 67 63 37 5 -20 3 1 7 -11 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 3 6 3 5 3 6 7 LAND (KM) 711 735 741 756 780 804 825 894 866 822 791 762 690 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.3 13.0 13.8 14.7 15.8 16.9 17.9 18.7 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.9 105.6 106.3 107.1 108.6 110.1 111.8 113.4 114.6 115.4 115.8 115.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 10 9 7 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 25 27 28 28 25 21 16 10 6 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -2. -6. -9. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 14. 17. 17. 14. 10. 6. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.6 104.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 10/29/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 10/29/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##