* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 09/17/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 33 33 34 38 41 44 46 48 50 53 V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 33 33 34 38 41 44 46 48 50 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 31 30 30 30 29 28 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 26 28 29 26 26 29 28 28 25 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 4 3 7 6 6 11 9 12 14 11 SHEAR DIR 33 35 37 46 50 44 35 33 39 46 35 12 6 SST (C) 29.0 29.4 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 159 164 166 167 165 164 164 163 164 167 169 172 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -53.3 -52.4 -53.1 -52.2 -53.0 -51.9 -52.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 3 4 4 8 6 9 7 9 6 11 700-500 MB RH 84 85 86 84 84 78 75 75 74 72 72 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 4 5 5 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -7 1 9 12 -8 -27 -23 -17 -9 -3 1 35 200 MB DIV 111 121 99 80 92 78 69 71 90 68 90 68 71 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -11 -11 -10 -11 -11 -2 -1 -4 -7 -9 -14 LAND (KM) 544 551 533 514 475 377 289 237 225 225 211 150 103 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.7 14.1 15.2 15.7 15.7 15.7 16.1 17.0 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 97.8 98.8 99.7 100.5 101.2 102.2 102.6 102.5 102.3 102.3 102.8 103.8 105.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 8 4 1 1 1 4 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 30 42 51 60 40 32 31 31 31 32 33 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -16. -19. -22. -23. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 97.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 09/17/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 1.6% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% Consensus: 0.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 2.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 09/17/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##