* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 08/11/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 19 23 26 30 31 30 29 27 24 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 19 23 26 30 31 30 29 27 24 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 12 14 11 13 7 4 8 9 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 1 3 2 9 2 1 0 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 357 357 357 11 18 14 42 60 74 150 193 197 223 SST (C) 30.8 30.5 30.7 30.3 29.9 28.9 27.5 25.9 23.8 22.8 22.4 22.7 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 172 169 165 155 141 124 102 91 86 89 90 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 71 71 68 68 67 64 63 62 56 54 48 44 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -27 -23 -10 0 -10 -2 -3 11 8 4 -22 -33 200 MB DIV 26 18 19 27 28 27 30 19 14 8 8 2 -7 700-850 TADV -3 1 1 -3 -2 2 -3 0 2 12 13 22 8 LAND (KM) 255 306 363 455 542 540 651 744 869 991 1156 1335 1453 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.8 19.8 20.9 22.1 23.4 24.3 24.8 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.5 107.7 109.0 110.2 112.8 115.6 118.2 120.9 123.6 125.9 128.3 130.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 12 12 14 14 13 14 13 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 36 29 26 21 19 13 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 439 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -3. 3. 12. 20. 26. 29. 31. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 7. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.6 105.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 08/11/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 150.3 40.5 to 149.3 1.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 4.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 3.8% 0.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 08/11/19 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING