* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 08/10/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 19 20 26 33 38 39 37 34 33 33 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 19 20 26 33 38 39 37 34 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 24 24 24 21 18 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 16 20 17 22 19 18 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 1 6 5 0 4 4 11 1 2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 354 337 321 335 357 358 28 30 60 72 87 85 100 SST (C) 30.8 31.0 31.2 31.1 30.9 30.8 30.3 29.1 27.9 26.8 25.6 24.3 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 172 172 172 169 157 144 133 120 106 103 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 12 10 10 8 6 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 69 70 66 66 65 67 65 62 60 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 2 1 9 15 -14 -21 -37 -35 -43 -32 -20 -24 200 MB DIV 22 23 4 -2 12 8 30 11 18 -7 -8 16 -13 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 -3 0 1 -5 -2 0 0 7 7 11 LAND (KM) 62 70 78 104 113 157 284 411 435 535 656 781 886 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.9 18.5 19.2 19.9 20.8 21.6 22.5 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 98.5 99.6 100.7 101.8 103.0 105.3 107.6 110.1 112.7 115.2 117.7 120.1 122.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 40 40 46 51 45 31 22 12 7 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -3. 2. 11. 20. 28. 33. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -7. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 0. 6. 13. 18. 19. 17. 14. 13. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.6 98.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 08/10/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 152.0 40.5 to 149.3 1.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 22.3% 13.5% 6.4% 3.2% 18.8% 1.4% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 7.5% 4.5% 2.1% 1.1% 6.3% 0.5% 1.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 08/10/19 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING