* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 08/09/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 22 29 37 45 49 50 50 51 53 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 22 29 37 45 49 50 50 51 53 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 28 28 28 26 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 8 10 10 12 13 18 16 19 17 14 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -1 3 2 6 6 5 7 1 3 SHEAR DIR 24 19 15 3 348 347 349 1 2 21 33 43 28 SST (C) 30.2 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.9 31.2 30.9 30.5 30.2 28.9 27.9 26.2 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 171 171 171 171 172 172 172 169 155 145 127 108 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 8 11 8 10 6 5 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 68 68 71 73 70 72 67 68 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 4 5 3 0 7 -2 -7 -21 -33 -31 -19 7 200 MB DIV 50 32 31 44 14 1 11 14 28 31 4 13 0 700-850 TADV 2 4 2 4 5 -1 3 -5 1 -8 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 260 167 128 100 99 130 177 276 451 511 643 750 883 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.2 17.9 18.7 19.6 20.8 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 95.1 96.2 97.2 98.1 99.1 101.2 103.6 106.3 109.1 112.0 115.1 118.2 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 10 10 11 12 14 14 15 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 34 36 39 39 40 49 43 29 19 14 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -3. 3. 11. 20. 28. 34. 37. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 9. 17. 25. 29. 30. 30. 31. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.6 95.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 08/09/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 150.7 40.5 to 149.3 1.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 17.4% 9.9% 4.4% 2.1% 16.6% 47.6% 56.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 7.7% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.9% Consensus: 0.9% 8.3% 3.9% 1.5% 0.7% 5.8% 16.0% 19.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 08/09/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##