* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 05/31/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 26 29 38 47 56 64 69 71 72 73 V (KT) LAND 20 22 22 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 20 22 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 13 12 11 10 6 3 4 2 2 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 -3 -7 -6 -7 -6 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 78 46 60 72 81 87 109 70 77 36 228 290 233 SST (C) 30.5 30.2 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.6 27.2 27.0 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 168 164 158 155 152 151 150 152 154 149 135 134 127 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.8 -51.9 -52.5 -51.7 -52.5 -51.6 -52.2 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 9 10 7 10 8 10 8 10 7 9 700-500 MB RH 76 77 79 79 80 81 81 80 79 78 76 76 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 6 6 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 71 82 74 73 69 72 72 69 61 69 82 68 200 MB DIV 104 92 82 88 92 44 64 100 131 36 52 40 31 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -3 -2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 61 22 -13 -32 -46 -49 -49 -45 -43 -78 -154 -223 -249 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.8 17.6 18.3 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 94.2 94.0 93.9 93.7 93.6 93.3 93.3 93.4 93.9 95.0 96.4 98.2 99.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 2 4 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 15 3 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 10. 18. 27. 36. 44. 49. 51. 52. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.4 94.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 05/31/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 28.4% 18.2% 8.4% 9.9% 39.7% 83.5% 79.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 1.8% 2.9% 47.9% Consensus: 1.2% 10.2% 6.6% 3.0% 3.3% 13.8% 28.8% 42.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 05/31/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##